The dancing copper thief

"Every dance is a kind of fever chart, a graph of the heart." - Martha Graham.

John, the head of procurement for Fancy Gizmos, was just settling back in his chair after his sojourn to the coffee machine. He closed his eyes as he savoured the freshly brewed aroma. He had been studying the coffee price chart that morning. “Not only is its flavor Robusta but so is it’s price,” he thought to himself, “and so is my risk management!” he added. He smiled at the thought of the huge pile of pods he had bought three months ago and blockaded the coffee machine with. “Who’s laughing now?” he thought, as he recalled the disturbing array of office jokes about his ‘pod mountain’ as some wit had so called it.

Just as he brought his mug to his lips his phone beeped several times, with the air raid tone that signified it was Sally, the CFO; his boss. “Help!” the message read, repeated several times then with an “Urgent!!!! The board chairman’s just asked me about some dancing copper thief and I have no idea what they’re talking about”.

John loved puzzles. In fact he was just about to use his coffee break to do that day’s Wordle. But ‘dancing copper thief’? What in the world was Sally referring to? “Sorry”, he messaged back, “but I need a hint”. “Copper Con Tango” came back the response. “The Chairman said he thinks the thief is a bit backwards.”

John smiled again. Puzzle solved. He quickly sent back a reply. “The board chairman was referring to the shape of the copper forward curve. The forward curve is the graph that shows at what prices in the future copper can be purchased today. If the forward curve is upwards sloping, meaning future prices increase with time, the copper market is said be in contango. If futures prices are lower than the current spot price and slope downwards then the market is said to be in backwardation. Obviously we would prefer backwardation allowing us to lock in lower purchase prices now and which suggests prices will decline over time. However, please point out to the board that the future price of copper seldom follows its forward curve at any point in time and we have a robust hedging policy in place. Our job is to protect the company from copper price volatility and not think we are traders!”

He couldn’t help himself as he added: ”and btw what do call a thief who hides in a church? – Conspire!”

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